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PhD research Niels van Oort MSc

Service dynamics and urban public transport planning

Public transport is a dynamic product. This is a result of driving behavior, interaction with other traffic, changes in level of demand, etc. Due to these differences, travel times fluctuate (as shown in figure 1), resulting in a decrease in reliability and an increase in costs for the operator. This research deals with deviations in travel times and measures to prevent them in the planning phases: network and timetable design.

Figure 1: Travel times tramline 12 in The Hague, during rush hour

Public transport, especially urban transport, has to deal with a lot of disturbances. This leads to less reliability, implying higher costs and lower income for the transport company and authority.
To increase reliability in public transport, the following questions have to be answered:
• What is the variation in travel times and what are their causes?
• Is it possible to control these deviations or their effects during the two planning phases of public transport: strategic and tactical and at the operational level (as shown in figure 2)?
• Which measures can be used in practice by a public transport company?


Figure 2: Three phases of public transport

Expected practical and scientific results
In this research an extensive analysis of empirical data of public transport operations will be made. This will provide detailed knowledge about deviations and their sources and effects.
Furthermore practical measures will be developed to prevent deviations and decrease their impact. These can be taken in the design phases of public transport.

Methodological approach
• Analysis of travel times in urban public transport with the use of empirical data on deviations: causes and effects;
• Analysis of the control possibilities of the deviations and their effects during the planning phases: network design and timetable planning;
• Developments of measures to prevent deviations and/or decrease their impact.
The focus is on urban public transport, but similarities with railways will be studied as well.